Agent- based simulation on avian influenza in Vietnam: Basic characteristics of the epidemic and efficiency evaluation of control measures

Dung Minh Nguyen, Hiroshi Deguchi, Manabu Ichikawa

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

1 Citation (Scopus)

Abstract

Background: During the first large outbreak of avian influenza (H5N1) in 2004 in Vietnam, an estimated 45 million poultry were culled or died, which resulted in a direct loss of approximately 0.1 percentage points of GDP (World Bank, 2005). The need for an effective strategy is not only the concern of biology and medical science but also of epidemiology. Methodology: We use a mathematical model to estimate the transmission probability of the disease based on daily reported number of dead poultry in northern Vietnam in November of 2005. The estimated values then are applied in an agent-based model which is used to evaluate the efficiency of current under-taken control measures. Result: The results imply a combination of culling 10% of infected poultry, 50% of preventive vaccinating and limiting transport of poultry, poultry products when 1% of the population were reported infectious could keep the disease under control and halt the infection process within 65 days. Conclusion: To prevent a new major outbreak of avian influenza in domestic poultry, a comprehensive strategy of culling, bio-security control and large-scale vaccination campaign should be set up in motion.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publication2010 7th International Conference on Service Systems and Service Management, Proceedings of ICSSSM' 10
Pages349-354
Number of pages6
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2010 Aug 30
Externally publishedYes
Event7th International Conference on Service Systems and Service Management, ICSSSM'10 - Tokyo, Japan
Duration: 2010 Jun 282010 Jun 30

Publication series

Name2010 7th International Conference on Service Systems and Service Management, Proceedings of ICSSSM' 10

Other

Other7th International Conference on Service Systems and Service Management, ICSSSM'10
CountryJapan
CityTokyo
Period10/6/2810/6/30

Keywords

  • Agent-based simulation
  • Avian influenza
  • Bird influenza
  • Control measure
  • Epidemic

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Computer Networks and Communications
  • Hardware and Architecture
  • Control and Systems Engineering

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    Nguyen, D. M., Deguchi, H., & Ichikawa, M. (2010). Agent- based simulation on avian influenza in Vietnam: Basic characteristics of the epidemic and efficiency evaluation of control measures. In 2010 7th International Conference on Service Systems and Service Management, Proceedings of ICSSSM' 10 (pp. 349-354). [5530215] (2010 7th International Conference on Service Systems and Service Management, Proceedings of ICSSSM' 10). https://doi.org/10.1109/ICSSSM.2010.5530215