Abstract
There are great uncertainties in the projected economic impacts of climate change1, arising from uncertainties in the climate response2, the climate change mitigation pathway3 and the socioeconomic development pathway4. Although the relative contributions of these factors are important for climate change related decision-making, they are poorly understood. Here, we show to what extent the projected economic impacts of climate change can be attributed to these three factors. Our modelling framework consisting of global, multisectoral impact models coupled with an integrated assessment model enables us to estimate the global total economic impacts of climate change while incorporating these uncertainty sources. Whereas the most pessimistic pathway without mitigation would result in a net economic impact equivalent to 6.6% (3.9–8.6%) of global gross domestic product at the end of this century, the pathways with stringent mitigation would limit the impact to around or less than 1%. Although the uncertainties are great, the climate change mitigation pathway is the dominant factor and socioeconomic developments can also contribute to alleviate the impacts of climate change. These results suggest that decisions on mitigation and development have a great influence in determining the economic impacts of climate change, regardless of the uncertainties in the climate response.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 737-741 |
| Number of pages | 5 |
| Journal | Nature Climate Change |
| Volume | 9 |
| Issue number | 10 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | Published - 2019 Oct 1 |
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ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Environmental Science (miscellaneous)
- Social Sciences (miscellaneous)
Cite this
Dependence of economic impacts of climate change on anthropogenically directed pathways. / Takakura, Jun’ya; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hanasaki, Naota; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Hirabayashi, Yukiko; Honda, Yasushi; Iizumi, Toshichika; Kumano, Naoko; Park, Chan; Shen, Zhihong; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Tamura, Makoto; Tanoue, Masahiro; Tsuchida, Koujiro; Yokoki, Hiromune; Zhou, Qian; Oki, Taikan; Hijioka, Yasuaki.
In: Nature Climate Change, Vol. 9, No. 10, 01.10.2019, p. 737-741.Research output: Contribution to journal › Letter
}
TY - JOUR
T1 - Dependence of economic impacts of climate change on anthropogenically directed pathways
AU - Takakura, Jun’ya
AU - Fujimori, Shinichiro
AU - Hanasaki, Naota
AU - Hasegawa, Tomoko
AU - Hirabayashi, Yukiko
AU - Honda, Yasushi
AU - Iizumi, Toshichika
AU - Kumano, Naoko
AU - Park, Chan
AU - Shen, Zhihong
AU - Takahashi, Kiyoshi
AU - Tamura, Makoto
AU - Tanoue, Masahiro
AU - Tsuchida, Koujiro
AU - Yokoki, Hiromune
AU - Zhou, Qian
AU - Oki, Taikan
AU - Hijioka, Yasuaki
PY - 2019/10/1
Y1 - 2019/10/1
N2 - There are great uncertainties in the projected economic impacts of climate change1, arising from uncertainties in the climate response2, the climate change mitigation pathway3 and the socioeconomic development pathway4. Although the relative contributions of these factors are important for climate change related decision-making, they are poorly understood. Here, we show to what extent the projected economic impacts of climate change can be attributed to these three factors. Our modelling framework consisting of global, multisectoral impact models coupled with an integrated assessment model enables us to estimate the global total economic impacts of climate change while incorporating these uncertainty sources. Whereas the most pessimistic pathway without mitigation would result in a net economic impact equivalent to 6.6% (3.9–8.6%) of global gross domestic product at the end of this century, the pathways with stringent mitigation would limit the impact to around or less than 1%. Although the uncertainties are great, the climate change mitigation pathway is the dominant factor and socioeconomic developments can also contribute to alleviate the impacts of climate change. These results suggest that decisions on mitigation and development have a great influence in determining the economic impacts of climate change, regardless of the uncertainties in the climate response.
AB - There are great uncertainties in the projected economic impacts of climate change1, arising from uncertainties in the climate response2, the climate change mitigation pathway3 and the socioeconomic development pathway4. Although the relative contributions of these factors are important for climate change related decision-making, they are poorly understood. Here, we show to what extent the projected economic impacts of climate change can be attributed to these three factors. Our modelling framework consisting of global, multisectoral impact models coupled with an integrated assessment model enables us to estimate the global total economic impacts of climate change while incorporating these uncertainty sources. Whereas the most pessimistic pathway without mitigation would result in a net economic impact equivalent to 6.6% (3.9–8.6%) of global gross domestic product at the end of this century, the pathways with stringent mitigation would limit the impact to around or less than 1%. Although the uncertainties are great, the climate change mitigation pathway is the dominant factor and socioeconomic developments can also contribute to alleviate the impacts of climate change. These results suggest that decisions on mitigation and development have a great influence in determining the economic impacts of climate change, regardless of the uncertainties in the climate response.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85073246866&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85073246866&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1038/s41558-019-0578-6
DO - 10.1038/s41558-019-0578-6
M3 - Letter
AN - SCOPUS:85073246866
VL - 9
SP - 737
EP - 741
JO - Nature Climate Change
JF - Nature Climate Change
SN - 1758-678X
IS - 10
ER -