Differences in flood hazard projections in Europe–their causes and consequences for decision making

Z. W. Kundzewicz, V. Krysanova, R. Dankers, Yukiko Hirabayashi, S. Kanae, F. F. Hattermann, S. Huang, P. C.D. Milly, M. Stoffel, P. P.J. Driessen, P. Matczak, P. Quevauviller, H. J. Schellnhuber

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Abstract

This paper interprets differences in flood hazard projections over Europe and identifies likely sources of discrepancy. Further, it discusses potential implications of these differences for flood risk reduction and adaptation to climate change. The discrepancy in flood hazard projections raises caution, especially among decision makers in charge of water resources management, flood risk reduction, and climate change adaptation at regional to local scales. Because it is naïve to expect availability of trustworthy quantitative projections of future flood hazard, in order to reduce flood risk one should focus attention on mapping of current and future risks and vulnerability hotspots and improve the situation there. Although an intercomparison of flood hazard projections is done in this paper and differences are identified and interpreted, it does not seems possible to recommend which large-scale studies may be considered most credible in particular areas of Europe. EDITOR D. Koutsoyiannis ASSOCIATE EDITOR not assigned

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1-14
Number of pages14
JournalHydrological Sciences Journal
Volume62
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2017 Jan 2
Externally publishedYes

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Keywords

  • climate change
  • decision making
  • Europe
  • flood hazard
  • projections
  • science–policy interactions

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Water Science and Technology

Cite this

Kundzewicz, Z. W., Krysanova, V., Dankers, R., Hirabayashi, Y., Kanae, S., Hattermann, F. F., Huang, S., Milly, P. C. D., Stoffel, M., Driessen, P. P. J., Matczak, P., Quevauviller, P., & Schellnhuber, H. J. (2017). Differences in flood hazard projections in Europe–their causes and consequences for decision making. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 62(1), 1-14. https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2016.1241398