Global assessment of agreement among streamflow projections using CMIP5 model outputs

Sujan Koirala, Yukiko Hirabayashi, Roobavannan Mahendran, Shinjiro Kanae

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

50 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Runoff outputs from 11 atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) participating in the fifth phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project were used to evaluate the changes in streamflow and agreement among AOGCMs at the end of 21st century. Under the highest emission scenario (Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5), high flow is projected to increase in northern high latitudes of Eurasia and North America, Asia, and eastern Africa, while mean and low flows are both projected to decrease in Europe, Middle East, southwestern United States, and Central America. Projected changes under RCP4.5 show similar spatial distribution but with lower magnitude. The model spread of projected changes, however, is found to be large under both scenarios. Bootstrapped Mann-Whitney-Wilcoxon U test revealed that projected changes of streamflow regimes are statistically not significant in 8-32% (19-59%) of the world under RCP8.5 (RCP4.5). The model agreement on projected increase or decrease in mean and high flows is stronger under RCP8.5 than that under RCP4.5. On the other hand, the projected changes in low flow are robust in both scenarios with strong model agreement. In ∼7% (4%) of the world, high flow is projected to increase and low flow is projected to decrease, whereas in ∼29% (13%) all mean, high, and low flows are projected to increase under RCP8.5 (RCP4.5).

Original languageEnglish
Article number064017
JournalEnvironmental Research Letters
Volume9
Issue number6
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2014 Jun 1
Externally publishedYes

Fingerprint

low flow
streamflow
general circulation model
atmosphere
twenty first century
ocean
runoff
spatial distribution
Runoff
Spatial distribution
CMIP
world

Keywords

  • agreement
  • climate change
  • CMIP5
  • high flow
  • low flow
  • streamflow
  • uncertainty

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment
  • Environmental Science(all)
  • Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health

Cite this

Global assessment of agreement among streamflow projections using CMIP5 model outputs. / Koirala, Sujan; Hirabayashi, Yukiko; Mahendran, Roobavannan; Kanae, Shinjiro.

In: Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 9, No. 6, 064017, 01.06.2014.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

@article{cc24954e5888427c88a779facf88f15e,
title = "Global assessment of agreement among streamflow projections using CMIP5 model outputs",
abstract = "Runoff outputs from 11 atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) participating in the fifth phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project were used to evaluate the changes in streamflow and agreement among AOGCMs at the end of 21st century. Under the highest emission scenario (Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5), high flow is projected to increase in northern high latitudes of Eurasia and North America, Asia, and eastern Africa, while mean and low flows are both projected to decrease in Europe, Middle East, southwestern United States, and Central America. Projected changes under RCP4.5 show similar spatial distribution but with lower magnitude. The model spread of projected changes, however, is found to be large under both scenarios. Bootstrapped Mann-Whitney-Wilcoxon U test revealed that projected changes of streamflow regimes are statistically not significant in 8-32{\%} (19-59{\%}) of the world under RCP8.5 (RCP4.5). The model agreement on projected increase or decrease in mean and high flows is stronger under RCP8.5 than that under RCP4.5. On the other hand, the projected changes in low flow are robust in both scenarios with strong model agreement. In ∼7{\%} (4{\%}) of the world, high flow is projected to increase and low flow is projected to decrease, whereas in ∼29{\%} (13{\%}) all mean, high, and low flows are projected to increase under RCP8.5 (RCP4.5).",
keywords = "agreement, climate change, CMIP5, high flow, low flow, streamflow, uncertainty",
author = "Sujan Koirala and Yukiko Hirabayashi and Roobavannan Mahendran and Shinjiro Kanae",
year = "2014",
month = "6",
day = "1",
doi = "10.1088/1748-9326/9/6/064017",
language = "English",
volume = "9",
journal = "Environmental Research Letters",
issn = "1748-9326",
publisher = "IOP Publishing Ltd.",
number = "6",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Global assessment of agreement among streamflow projections using CMIP5 model outputs

AU - Koirala, Sujan

AU - Hirabayashi, Yukiko

AU - Mahendran, Roobavannan

AU - Kanae, Shinjiro

PY - 2014/6/1

Y1 - 2014/6/1

N2 - Runoff outputs from 11 atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) participating in the fifth phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project were used to evaluate the changes in streamflow and agreement among AOGCMs at the end of 21st century. Under the highest emission scenario (Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5), high flow is projected to increase in northern high latitudes of Eurasia and North America, Asia, and eastern Africa, while mean and low flows are both projected to decrease in Europe, Middle East, southwestern United States, and Central America. Projected changes under RCP4.5 show similar spatial distribution but with lower magnitude. The model spread of projected changes, however, is found to be large under both scenarios. Bootstrapped Mann-Whitney-Wilcoxon U test revealed that projected changes of streamflow regimes are statistically not significant in 8-32% (19-59%) of the world under RCP8.5 (RCP4.5). The model agreement on projected increase or decrease in mean and high flows is stronger under RCP8.5 than that under RCP4.5. On the other hand, the projected changes in low flow are robust in both scenarios with strong model agreement. In ∼7% (4%) of the world, high flow is projected to increase and low flow is projected to decrease, whereas in ∼29% (13%) all mean, high, and low flows are projected to increase under RCP8.5 (RCP4.5).

AB - Runoff outputs from 11 atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) participating in the fifth phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project were used to evaluate the changes in streamflow and agreement among AOGCMs at the end of 21st century. Under the highest emission scenario (Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5), high flow is projected to increase in northern high latitudes of Eurasia and North America, Asia, and eastern Africa, while mean and low flows are both projected to decrease in Europe, Middle East, southwestern United States, and Central America. Projected changes under RCP4.5 show similar spatial distribution but with lower magnitude. The model spread of projected changes, however, is found to be large under both scenarios. Bootstrapped Mann-Whitney-Wilcoxon U test revealed that projected changes of streamflow regimes are statistically not significant in 8-32% (19-59%) of the world under RCP8.5 (RCP4.5). The model agreement on projected increase or decrease in mean and high flows is stronger under RCP8.5 than that under RCP4.5. On the other hand, the projected changes in low flow are robust in both scenarios with strong model agreement. In ∼7% (4%) of the world, high flow is projected to increase and low flow is projected to decrease, whereas in ∼29% (13%) all mean, high, and low flows are projected to increase under RCP8.5 (RCP4.5).

KW - agreement

KW - climate change

KW - CMIP5

KW - high flow

KW - low flow

KW - streamflow

KW - uncertainty

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84903592003&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=84903592003&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1088/1748-9326/9/6/064017

DO - 10.1088/1748-9326/9/6/064017

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:84903592003

VL - 9

JO - Environmental Research Letters

JF - Environmental Research Letters

SN - 1748-9326

IS - 6

M1 - 064017

ER -