Global projections of changing risks of floods and droughts in a changing climate

Yukiko Hirabayashi, Shinjiro Kanae, Seita Emori, Taikan Oki, Masahide Kimoto

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

200 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Simulated daily discharge derived from a relatively high-resolution (approximately 1.1-degree) general circulation model was used to investigate future projections of extremes in river discharge under global warming. The frequency of floods was projected to increase over many regions, except those including North America and central to western Eurasia. The drought frequency was projected to increase globally, while regions such as northern high latitudes, eastern Australia, and eastern Eurasia showed a decrease or no significant changes. Changes in flood and drought are not explained simply by changes in annual precipitation, heavy precipitation, or differences between precipitation and evapotranspiration. Several regions were projected to have increases in both flood frequency and drought frequency. Such regions show a decrease in the number of precipitation days, but an increase in days with heavy rain. Several regions show shifts in the flood season from springtime snowmelt to the summer period of heavy precipitation.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)754-772
Number of pages19
JournalHydrological Sciences Journal
Volume53
Issue number4
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2008 Aug 1
Externally publishedYes

Fingerprint

drought
climate
flood frequency
river discharge
snowmelt
general circulation model
evapotranspiration
global warming
summer

Keywords

  • Drought
  • Flood
  • Global warming
  • River discharge

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Water Science and Technology

Cite this

Global projections of changing risks of floods and droughts in a changing climate. / Hirabayashi, Yukiko; Kanae, Shinjiro; Emori, Seita; Oki, Taikan; Kimoto, Masahide.

In: Hydrological Sciences Journal, Vol. 53, No. 4, 01.08.2008, p. 754-772.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Hirabayashi, Yukiko ; Kanae, Shinjiro ; Emori, Seita ; Oki, Taikan ; Kimoto, Masahide. / Global projections of changing risks of floods and droughts in a changing climate. In: Hydrological Sciences Journal. 2008 ; Vol. 53, No. 4. pp. 754-772.
@article{df732987c7aa4ba3b9c17698eba23f6d,
title = "Global projections of changing risks of floods and droughts in a changing climate",
abstract = "Simulated daily discharge derived from a relatively high-resolution (approximately 1.1-degree) general circulation model was used to investigate future projections of extremes in river discharge under global warming. The frequency of floods was projected to increase over many regions, except those including North America and central to western Eurasia. The drought frequency was projected to increase globally, while regions such as northern high latitudes, eastern Australia, and eastern Eurasia showed a decrease or no significant changes. Changes in flood and drought are not explained simply by changes in annual precipitation, heavy precipitation, or differences between precipitation and evapotranspiration. Several regions were projected to have increases in both flood frequency and drought frequency. Such regions show a decrease in the number of precipitation days, but an increase in days with heavy rain. Several regions show shifts in the flood season from springtime snowmelt to the summer period of heavy precipitation.",
keywords = "Drought, Flood, Global warming, River discharge",
author = "Yukiko Hirabayashi and Shinjiro Kanae and Seita Emori and Taikan Oki and Masahide Kimoto",
year = "2008",
month = "8",
day = "1",
doi = "10.1623/hysj.53.4.754",
language = "English",
volume = "53",
pages = "754--772",
journal = "Hydrological Sciences Journal",
issn = "0262-6667",
publisher = "Taylor and Francis Ltd.",
number = "4",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Global projections of changing risks of floods and droughts in a changing climate

AU - Hirabayashi, Yukiko

AU - Kanae, Shinjiro

AU - Emori, Seita

AU - Oki, Taikan

AU - Kimoto, Masahide

PY - 2008/8/1

Y1 - 2008/8/1

N2 - Simulated daily discharge derived from a relatively high-resolution (approximately 1.1-degree) general circulation model was used to investigate future projections of extremes in river discharge under global warming. The frequency of floods was projected to increase over many regions, except those including North America and central to western Eurasia. The drought frequency was projected to increase globally, while regions such as northern high latitudes, eastern Australia, and eastern Eurasia showed a decrease or no significant changes. Changes in flood and drought are not explained simply by changes in annual precipitation, heavy precipitation, or differences between precipitation and evapotranspiration. Several regions were projected to have increases in both flood frequency and drought frequency. Such regions show a decrease in the number of precipitation days, but an increase in days with heavy rain. Several regions show shifts in the flood season from springtime snowmelt to the summer period of heavy precipitation.

AB - Simulated daily discharge derived from a relatively high-resolution (approximately 1.1-degree) general circulation model was used to investigate future projections of extremes in river discharge under global warming. The frequency of floods was projected to increase over many regions, except those including North America and central to western Eurasia. The drought frequency was projected to increase globally, while regions such as northern high latitudes, eastern Australia, and eastern Eurasia showed a decrease or no significant changes. Changes in flood and drought are not explained simply by changes in annual precipitation, heavy precipitation, or differences between precipitation and evapotranspiration. Several regions were projected to have increases in both flood frequency and drought frequency. Such regions show a decrease in the number of precipitation days, but an increase in days with heavy rain. Several regions show shifts in the flood season from springtime snowmelt to the summer period of heavy precipitation.

KW - Drought

KW - Flood

KW - Global warming

KW - River discharge

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=52649125208&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=52649125208&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1623/hysj.53.4.754

DO - 10.1623/hysj.53.4.754

M3 - Article

VL - 53

SP - 754

EP - 772

JO - Hydrological Sciences Journal

JF - Hydrological Sciences Journal

SN - 0262-6667

IS - 4

ER -