Abstract
Simulated daily discharge derived from a relatively high-resolution (approximately 1.1-degree) general circulation model was used to investigate future projections of extremes in river discharge under global warming. The frequency of floods was projected to increase over many regions, except those including North America and central to western Eurasia. The drought frequency was projected to increase globally, while regions such as northern high latitudes, eastern Australia, and eastern Eurasia showed a decrease or no significant changes. Changes in flood and drought are not explained simply by changes in annual precipitation, heavy precipitation, or differences between precipitation and evapotranspiration. Several regions were projected to have increases in both flood frequency and drought frequency. Such regions show a decrease in the number of precipitation days, but an increase in days with heavy rain. Several regions show shifts in the flood season from springtime snowmelt to the summer period of heavy precipitation.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 754-772 |
| Number of pages | 19 |
| Journal | Hydrological Sciences Journal |
| Volume | 53 |
| Issue number | 4 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | Published - 2008 Aug 1 |
| Externally published | Yes |
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Keywords
- Drought
- Flood
- Global warming
- River discharge
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Water Science and Technology
Cite this
Global projections of changing risks of floods and droughts in a changing climate. / Hirabayashi, Yukiko; Kanae, Shinjiro; Emori, Seita; Oki, Taikan; Kimoto, Masahide.
In: Hydrological Sciences Journal, Vol. 53, No. 4, 01.08.2008, p. 754-772.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
}
TY - JOUR
T1 - Global projections of changing risks of floods and droughts in a changing climate
AU - Hirabayashi, Yukiko
AU - Kanae, Shinjiro
AU - Emori, Seita
AU - Oki, Taikan
AU - Kimoto, Masahide
PY - 2008/8/1
Y1 - 2008/8/1
N2 - Simulated daily discharge derived from a relatively high-resolution (approximately 1.1-degree) general circulation model was used to investigate future projections of extremes in river discharge under global warming. The frequency of floods was projected to increase over many regions, except those including North America and central to western Eurasia. The drought frequency was projected to increase globally, while regions such as northern high latitudes, eastern Australia, and eastern Eurasia showed a decrease or no significant changes. Changes in flood and drought are not explained simply by changes in annual precipitation, heavy precipitation, or differences between precipitation and evapotranspiration. Several regions were projected to have increases in both flood frequency and drought frequency. Such regions show a decrease in the number of precipitation days, but an increase in days with heavy rain. Several regions show shifts in the flood season from springtime snowmelt to the summer period of heavy precipitation.
AB - Simulated daily discharge derived from a relatively high-resolution (approximately 1.1-degree) general circulation model was used to investigate future projections of extremes in river discharge under global warming. The frequency of floods was projected to increase over many regions, except those including North America and central to western Eurasia. The drought frequency was projected to increase globally, while regions such as northern high latitudes, eastern Australia, and eastern Eurasia showed a decrease or no significant changes. Changes in flood and drought are not explained simply by changes in annual precipitation, heavy precipitation, or differences between precipitation and evapotranspiration. Several regions were projected to have increases in both flood frequency and drought frequency. Such regions show a decrease in the number of precipitation days, but an increase in days with heavy rain. Several regions show shifts in the flood season from springtime snowmelt to the summer period of heavy precipitation.
KW - Drought
KW - Flood
KW - Global warming
KW - River discharge
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=52649125208&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=52649125208&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1623/hysj.53.4.754
DO - 10.1623/hysj.53.4.754
M3 - Article
VL - 53
SP - 754
EP - 772
JO - Hydrological Sciences Journal
JF - Hydrological Sciences Journal
SN - 0262-6667
IS - 4
ER -