Abstract
River floods are among some of the costliest natural disasters1, but their socio-economic impacts under contrasting warming levels remain little explored2. Here, using a multi-model framework, we estimate human losses, direct economic damage and subsequent indirect impacts (welfare losses) under a range of temperature (1.5 °C, 2 °C and 3 °C warming)3 and socio-economic scenarios, assuming current vulnerability levels and in the absence of future adaptation. With temperature increases of 1.5 °C, depending on the socio-economic scenario, it is found that human losses from flooding could rise by 70–83%, direct flood damage by 160–240%, with a relative welfare reduction between 0.23 and 0.29%. In a 2 °C world, by contrast, the death toll is 50% higher, direct economic damage doubles and welfare losses grow to 0.4%. Impacts are notably higher under 3 C warming, but at the same time, variability between ensemble members also increases, leading to greater uncertainty regarding flood impacts at higher warming levels. Flood impacts are further shown to have an uneven regional distribution, with the greatest losses observed in the Asian continent at all analysed warming levels. It is clear that increased adaptation and mitigation efforts—perhaps through infrastructural investment4—are needed to offset increasing risk of river floods in the future.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 781-786 |
| Number of pages | 6 |
| Journal | Nature Climate Change |
| Volume | 8 |
| Issue number | 9 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | Published - 2018 Sep 1 |
| Externally published | Yes |
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ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Environmental Science (miscellaneous)
- Social Sciences (miscellaneous)
Cite this
Increased human and economic losses from river flooding with anthropogenic warming. / Dottori, Francesco; Szewczyk, Wojciech; Ciscar, Juan Carlos; Zhao, Fang; Alfieri, Lorenzo; Hirabayashi, Yukiko; Bianchi, Alessandra; Mongelli, Ignazio; Frieler, Katja; Betts, Richard A.; Feyen, Luc.
In: Nature Climate Change, Vol. 8, No. 9, 01.09.2018, p. 781-786.Research output: Contribution to journal › Letter
}
TY - JOUR
T1 - Increased human and economic losses from river flooding with anthropogenic warming
AU - Dottori, Francesco
AU - Szewczyk, Wojciech
AU - Ciscar, Juan Carlos
AU - Zhao, Fang
AU - Alfieri, Lorenzo
AU - Hirabayashi, Yukiko
AU - Bianchi, Alessandra
AU - Mongelli, Ignazio
AU - Frieler, Katja
AU - Betts, Richard A.
AU - Feyen, Luc
PY - 2018/9/1
Y1 - 2018/9/1
N2 - River floods are among some of the costliest natural disasters1, but their socio-economic impacts under contrasting warming levels remain little explored2. Here, using a multi-model framework, we estimate human losses, direct economic damage and subsequent indirect impacts (welfare losses) under a range of temperature (1.5 °C, 2 °C and 3 °C warming)3 and socio-economic scenarios, assuming current vulnerability levels and in the absence of future adaptation. With temperature increases of 1.5 °C, depending on the socio-economic scenario, it is found that human losses from flooding could rise by 70–83%, direct flood damage by 160–240%, with a relative welfare reduction between 0.23 and 0.29%. In a 2 °C world, by contrast, the death toll is 50% higher, direct economic damage doubles and welfare losses grow to 0.4%. Impacts are notably higher under 3 C warming, but at the same time, variability between ensemble members also increases, leading to greater uncertainty regarding flood impacts at higher warming levels. Flood impacts are further shown to have an uneven regional distribution, with the greatest losses observed in the Asian continent at all analysed warming levels. It is clear that increased adaptation and mitigation efforts—perhaps through infrastructural investment4—are needed to offset increasing risk of river floods in the future.
AB - River floods are among some of the costliest natural disasters1, but their socio-economic impacts under contrasting warming levels remain little explored2. Here, using a multi-model framework, we estimate human losses, direct economic damage and subsequent indirect impacts (welfare losses) under a range of temperature (1.5 °C, 2 °C and 3 °C warming)3 and socio-economic scenarios, assuming current vulnerability levels and in the absence of future adaptation. With temperature increases of 1.5 °C, depending on the socio-economic scenario, it is found that human losses from flooding could rise by 70–83%, direct flood damage by 160–240%, with a relative welfare reduction between 0.23 and 0.29%. In a 2 °C world, by contrast, the death toll is 50% higher, direct economic damage doubles and welfare losses grow to 0.4%. Impacts are notably higher under 3 C warming, but at the same time, variability between ensemble members also increases, leading to greater uncertainty regarding flood impacts at higher warming levels. Flood impacts are further shown to have an uneven regional distribution, with the greatest losses observed in the Asian continent at all analysed warming levels. It is clear that increased adaptation and mitigation efforts—perhaps through infrastructural investment4—are needed to offset increasing risk of river floods in the future.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85052580633&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85052580633&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1038/s41558-018-0257-z
DO - 10.1038/s41558-018-0257-z
M3 - Letter
AN - SCOPUS:85052580633
VL - 8
SP - 781
EP - 786
JO - Nature Climate Change
JF - Nature Climate Change
SN - 1758-678X
IS - 9
ER -