Long-Term Changes in Global Socioeconomic Benefits of Flood Defenses and Residual Risk Based on CMIP5 Climate Models

Wee Ho Lim, Dai Yamazaki, Sujan Koirala, Yukiko Hirabayashi, Shinjiro Kanae, Simon J. Dadson, Jim W. Hall, Fubao Sun

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

A warmer climate is expected to accelerate the global hydrological cycle, causing more intense precipitation and floods. Despite recent progress in global flood risk assessment, the socioeconomic benefits of flood defenses (i.e., reduction in population/economic exposure) and the residual risk (i.e., residual population/economic exposure) are poorly understood globally and regionally. To address these knowledge gaps, we use the runoff data from a baseline and 11 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate models to drive the Catchment-based Macro-scale Floodplain model incorporating the latest satellite river width information. From the simulated annual maxima, we use a Gumbel distribution to estimate the river water depth-flood return period relationship. We independently evaluate flood impacts on population and economy (i.e., gross domestic product) for a range of flood return periods. We estimate the socioeconomic benefits and the corresponding residual risk for the globe and 26 subcontinental regions. The global population (gross domestic product) exposed to flooding is ∼8% (∼7%) per year lower when implementing existing flood protection infrastructure extracted from the FLOod PROtection Standards database. If the current flood defenses were to be unchanged in the future (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 [RCP4.5] and RCP8.5, i.e., ∼2 to ∼4.3°C above the preindustrial levels), the globe and most of the regions (particularly where developing countries are concentrated) would experience an increase in residual risk. This increase is especially obvious when the gap of climate forcing between RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 widens by the end of the 21st century. We finally evaluate the impact of changed flood defense levels on the socioeconomic benefits and the corresponding residual risk.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)938-954
Number of pages17
JournalEarth's Future
Volume6
Issue number7
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2018 Jul 1

Fingerprint

long-term change
climate modeling
return period
Gross Domestic Product
climate forcing
CMIP
defence
residual risk
socioeconomics
twenty first century
hydrological cycle
economics
river water
floodplain
water depth
risk assessment
flooding
developing world
infrastructure
catchment

Keywords

  • benefits
  • climate change
  • flood defense
  • global scale
  • residual risk
  • river flooding

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous)
  • Environmental Science(all)

Cite this

Long-Term Changes in Global Socioeconomic Benefits of Flood Defenses and Residual Risk Based on CMIP5 Climate Models. / Lim, Wee Ho; Yamazaki, Dai; Koirala, Sujan; Hirabayashi, Yukiko; Kanae, Shinjiro; Dadson, Simon J.; Hall, Jim W.; Sun, Fubao.

In: Earth's Future, Vol. 6, No. 7, 01.07.2018, p. 938-954.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Lim, Wee Ho ; Yamazaki, Dai ; Koirala, Sujan ; Hirabayashi, Yukiko ; Kanae, Shinjiro ; Dadson, Simon J. ; Hall, Jim W. ; Sun, Fubao. / Long-Term Changes in Global Socioeconomic Benefits of Flood Defenses and Residual Risk Based on CMIP5 Climate Models. In: Earth's Future. 2018 ; Vol. 6, No. 7. pp. 938-954.
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