Quantification of increased flood risk due to global climate change for urban river management planning

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

18 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Global climate change is expected to affect future rainfall patterns. These changes should be taken into account when assessing future flooding risks. This study presents a method for quantifying the increase in flood risk caused by global climate change for use in urban flood risk management. Flood risk in this context is defined as the product of flood damage potential and the probability of its occurrence. The study uses a geographic information system-based flood damage prediction model to calculate the flood damage caused by design storms with different return periods. Estimation of the monetary damages these storms produce and their return periods are precursors to flood risk calculations. The design storms are developed from modified intensity-duration-frequency relationships generated by simulations of global climate change scenarios (e.g. CGCM2A2). The risk assessment method is applied to the Kanda River basin in Tokyo, Japan. The assessment provides insights not only into the flood risk cost increase due to global warming, and the impact that increase may have on flood control infrastructure planning.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)2967-2974
Number of pages8
JournalWater Science and Technology
Volume63
Issue number12
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2011

Fingerprint

river management
Climate change
Flood damage
global climate
Rivers
flood damage
Planning
climate change
return period
infrastructure planning
storm damage
Flood control
flood control
Global warming
assessment method
Risk management
Catchments
Risk assessment
Geographic information systems
Rain

Keywords

  • Climate change
  • Flood inundation modelling
  • Flood risk assessment
  • Flood risk management

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Environmental Engineering
  • Water Science and Technology

Cite this

Quantification of increased flood risk due to global climate change for urban river management planning. / Morita, Masaru.

In: Water Science and Technology, Vol. 63, No. 12, 2011, p. 2967-2974.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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