Risk assessment method for flood control planning considering global climate change in urban river management

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

3 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

This study presents a methodology for assessing flood risks, dealing in particular with decreased risk achieved by flood protection projects and increased risk due to climate change in a framework of flood risk management for urban rivers. "Flood risk" is defined as the product of flood damage potential and the probability of its occurrence. Flood inundations and their monetary damages are calculated with the Flood Damage Prediction Model (FDPM) using XP-SWMM. The increased cost of risk caused by climate change can be estimated from the difference between the potential damages before and after the predicted climate change using the Return Period Shift method. The change in risk cost is finally interpreted as a Flood Risk Impact Factor (FRIF) defined as the ratio of the change in risk cost to the present risk cost. The factor evaluates the changes in flood risk due to different causes using the same scale.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationFloods
Subtitle of host publicationFrom Risk to Opportunity
Pages107-116
Number of pages10
Publication statusPublished - 2013 Sep 9
Event5th International Conference on Flood Management, ICFM 2011 - Tokyo, Japan
Duration: 2011 Sep 272011 Sep 29

Publication series

NameIAHS-AISH Publication
Volume357
ISSN (Print)0144-7815

Conference

Conference5th International Conference on Flood Management, ICFM 2011
CountryJapan
CityTokyo
Period11/9/2711/9/29

Keywords

  • Climate change
  • Flood risk assessment
  • Flood risk impact factor
  • Return period shift method
  • Urban river management

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Earth and Planetary Sciences(all)

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  • Cite this

    Morita, M. (2013). Risk assessment method for flood control planning considering global climate change in urban river management. In Floods: From Risk to Opportunity (pp. 107-116). (IAHS-AISH Publication; Vol. 357).