Agent- based simulation on avian influenza in Vietnam: Basic characteristics of the epidemic and efficiency evaluation of control measures

Dung Minh Nguyen, Hiroshi Deguchi, Manabu Ichikawa

研究成果: Conference contribution

3 被引用数 (Scopus)

抄録

Background: During the first large outbreak of avian influenza (H5N1) in 2004 in Vietnam, an estimated 45 million poultry were culled or died, which resulted in a direct loss of approximately 0.1 percentage points of GDP (World Bank, 2005). The need for an effective strategy is not only the concern of biology and medical science but also of epidemiology. Methodology: We use a mathematical model to estimate the transmission probability of the disease based on daily reported number of dead poultry in northern Vietnam in November of 2005. The estimated values then are applied in an agent-based model which is used to evaluate the efficiency of current under-taken control measures. Result: The results imply a combination of culling 10% of infected poultry, 50% of preventive vaccinating and limiting transport of poultry, poultry products when 1% of the population were reported infectious could keep the disease under control and halt the infection process within 65 days. Conclusion: To prevent a new major outbreak of avian influenza in domestic poultry, a comprehensive strategy of culling, bio-security control and large-scale vaccination campaign should be set up in motion.

本文言語English
ホスト出版物のタイトル2010 7th International Conference on Service Systems and Service Management, Proceedings of ICSSSM' 10
ページ349-354
ページ数6
DOI
出版ステータスPublished - 2010 8 30
外部発表はい
イベント7th International Conference on Service Systems and Service Management, ICSSSM'10 - Tokyo, Japan
継続期間: 2010 6 282010 6 30

出版物シリーズ

名前2010 7th International Conference on Service Systems and Service Management, Proceedings of ICSSSM' 10

Other

Other7th International Conference on Service Systems and Service Management, ICSSSM'10
CountryJapan
CityTokyo
Period10/6/2810/6/30

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Computer Networks and Communications
  • Hardware and Architecture
  • Control and Systems Engineering

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