The effect of CO 2 reduction in Japanese residential sector on various future scenarios for low-carbon society was estimated by the developed forecasting model considering the difference of energy consumption structure in different family types, different geographical area and different house types. Based on the results of forecasting model simulation by 2050, needed policies to achieve the Japanese CO 2 reduction goal (25% reduction at 2020 and 80% reduction at 2050 comparing to CO 2 emission at 1990) was discussed in this study. Results of forecasting simulation showed following 2 aspects. 1. Spread of low carbon technologies (LCT) into residential sector was indispensable to achieve the CO 2 reduction goal in 2050, however, the spread speed of LCT couldn't catch up with the expected speed of CO 2 reduction to reach the goal in 2020. As an additional measure, reduction of CO 2 emission factor for electricity was indispensable. 2. Spread of LCT into existing houses was indispensable to achieve CO 2 reduction goal both in 2020 and 2050, because the CO 2 reduction was not enough to achieve those goals even if the introduction of LCT was obligated to all of new buildings.
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